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Bill Gates, Microsoft and Tablet PCs

(Note: up front I should point out this post is a critique of ideas and not business models, I can do those at a later time if you so desire).

Richard Giles, in a recent blog, compared Bill Gates with Steve Jobs. It wasn’t the usual “who would win in a boxing match between those two” cliché, it was not condescending nor was it flaming in any way. He merely expressed his experiences and observations regarding: who was the innovator, risk-taker and revolutionary, versus the follower.

Stating,

Steve has been there and done that when it comes to tablets. Lets face it, that's what the Newton was. Bill on the other hand has only began his work in the area. There have been reports in the last few months that tablets are not gaining as much traction as expected. I think this is occurring for two reasons. Although Bill thinks that we all learn to write with pencils, I think he misses the point that we then graduate to keyboards. I can type much quicker than I can write, it's a much easier form of input. Secondly, I use a laptop like a sit down meal. I like to spend some time on the job. Tablets are trying to fill a gap that is better suited to smaller devices. They are trying to serve two functions, the sit down meal, and fast food. Mobile phones are filling the gap. I think we'll see tablets fill a niche, but nothing more. Steve's statement that "Tablets appeal to rich guys with plenty of other PCs and devices already", fits in with what the market is saying.

I would have to agree with Mr. Giles regarding tablets, I also agree with Steve’s analysis of the situation. I used the Newton back in my freshman year of high school and was not overly impressed. I’m not sure what Bill thinks what values he can add on top of the tablet – he needs to differentiate the new Tablet PC from everything else, extol his vision and explain why a consumer would want to purchase and use this. He has mentioned WiFi, but you can pick up a PDA, laptop or cell-phone with many of the same capabilities that are not only cheaper, but proven as a stable and reliable solution.

Bill has suggested that the Tablet PC is geared for and marketed to replace the notepad, but so is the smaller and budget-friendly PDA. Bill simply has a lack of radical enthusiasm and that does not help him sell this idea that I will want his Tablet (the .NET initiative also suffers from the same lack of “clear” and “concise” visions).

When you think of contemporary technological revolutions, what do you think of? Do you think of Bill Gates and Jay Leno in August of 1995 unveiling Microsoft’s new bread and butter? Or do you think of demagogic IBM versus a small band of ideologically empowered individuals that throw wrenches into the Machine to make it stop?

The biggest problem Bill Gates has, is that he is Bill Gates. He is the Big Brother in Apple’s 1984 ad. He is the centralized authoritarian that tells “drones” how they will compute:

Today, we celebrate the first glorious anniversary of the Information Purification Directives. We have created, for the first time in all history, a garden of pure ideology. Where each worker may bloom secure from the pests of contradictory and confusing truths. Our Unification of Thoughts is more powerful a weapon than any fleet or army on earth. We are one people, with one will, one resolve, one cause. Our enemies shall talk themselves to death and we will bury them with their own confusion. We shall prevail!

Of course, Apple did not capitalize off this miscalculation and is certainly not in a better position today in terms of influence on the desktop than they were 20 years ago. At the same time, Bill has not done enough to rid himself of the stigma and archetype he has become. He is not hip, ideological or revolutionary. That is not his style and therefore, trying to promote a product like the Tablet PC, which is a fusion between laptops and PDAs, will possibly fail.

Bill certainly is motivated and can move an entire industry (or industries) to adopt certain standards (or conversely, not adopt them). However, this is not a standard, so his ability to leverage an appliance that very few individuals have in the first place would require subsidies on the same scale as the Xbox.

Additionally, if Tablet PCs are so “hot” and “groovy” and The Next Big Thing™ why aren’t more producers making them (clones, knock-offs, etc.) and why is the demand for the existing ones very low? As I see it, many potential consumers are trying to squeeze money currently and do not see the existing Tablet PC solutions as anything more than a neat commodity (that is me speaking as a consumer). So what exactly can the producers do to sell these nifty contraptions? A marketing flop is in the works, unless Microsoft can demonstrate and help bring to market something that convinces me to ditch my laptop and my PDA. I’m not holding my breath either.

Continuing,

The statement that most amazed me, was Bill's suggestion that "The PC was an enormous leap forward, and we're unlikely to see something as dramatic again, but digital ink, speech recognition and Web services are big steps". Bill, did you forget about the Internet? The single biggest influence on communication that we've seen since the telephone.

Once more, I concur with Mr. Giles’ critique of Bill, this is the same Bill however, that essentially missed the Internet and had to resort to gigantic budgets and development teams to catch up.

Next,

Steve seems to be aligned with the rest of us. His mobile phone statement makes a huge amount of sense, "I get a lot of pressure to do a PDA. What people really seem to want to do with these is get the data out. We believe cell phones are going to carry this information". I saw a Sony P800 in action the other day, and I can see me using one of the future Nokia's, similar to the 6108, for all on the move, fast food data, very soon. This is where a pencil makes sense, because in such a small device it's hard to get a thumb to press the right button.

About six weeks ago I actually commented on a post by Mr. Giles, explaining how I would only buy a gadget that included WiFi, 4G, GPS and a PDA as a completely integrated solution. I see no reason to doubt that these merging technologies will continue to do so, pulling in others and eventually becoming One.

Lastly,

As I say, perhaps I am biassed, and I automatically get my backup before I read anything Bill says, but I struggle to find any genius in him. However, Steve has his finger on the pulse.

Here is an exercise I’ve wanted someone to demonstrate, but have yet to see anyone really do it. Take out a piece of paper, draw a line down the middle. The goal is this: write down all the innovations and avant-garde ideas that were introduced by Bill Gates and Steve Jobs (Microsoft and Apple/NeXT). Then use Metcalfe's Law, look at how many other "appliances" or "software" connect to each of these ideas. My guess is that Steve Jobs and the teams he has worked with will have more original ideas that they brought to market first, but that products by Bill Gates and Microsoft have more wares connecting to their products (though, I don't think that is in question).

Now before flooding my inbox with various flames, I should note that I think Steve Jobs dropped the ball quite a bit too -- not just Bill (other than the blaring fact that Apple has only 2% of the entire market), first with Lisa, then with the Mac and then with NeXT. I can understand Lisa, however with the Mac, rather than trying to bake your cake and eat it too, Steve could have emulated what Microsoft was doing: licensing. Though, you can also point to all these “failures” and look to see what has been adopted or “copied” into other technological solutions.

Posted by Tim at June 1, 2003 06:18 PM | TrackBack